The 8th Meeting of the International Network on Health Expectancy (REVES 8)

Host: S. Jay Olshansky, Ph.D., The University of Chicago

Funded by the National Institute on Aging and Center on Aging, University of Chicago




7:30 - 8:30 Breakfast

8:30 - 8:45 Welcome and Introductions: S. Jay Olshansky (U.S.)

8:45 - 9:00 Opening Remarks: Jean-Marie Robine (France)

SESSION I: Health Expectancy and Public Policy

CHAIR: Jean Marie Robine (France)

9:00 - 9:15 M. Bone, A.C. Bebbington, G. Nicolaas Policy Applications of Health Expectancy

9:15 - 9:30 H.P. van de Water, R.J.M Perenboom, H.C. Boshuizen Policy Relevance of the Health Expectancy Indicator: An Inventory in European Countries

9:30 - 9:45 C. Jagger and K. Morgan A Vision of the Future: Demonstrating the Policy Relevance of Health Expectancies

9:45 - 10:00 E. Jow-Ching Tu and K. Chen Recent Trends in Healthy Life Expectancy and Their Implications for Medical Costs in Taiwan

10:00-10:15 J. Kytir Trends in Health Expectancy: Implications of Health Resource Allocation Priorities Withdrawn

10:15 - 10:30 Discussion

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break

SESSION II Defining Health and Disability

CHAIR: Harry van de Water (The Netherlands)

11:00 - 11:15 E. Cambois and J.M. Robine The Concepts of Health and Disability in Health Reports

11:15 - 11:30 L. Verbrugge, S.S. Merrill, X. Liu Measuring Disability With Parsimony

11:30 - 11:45 I. Romieu, J.M. Robine, E. Cambois REVES Classification System of Health Expectancies

11:45 - 12:00 Discussion

12:00 - 1:30 Lunch


SESSION III Methodology - I

CHAIR: Mark Rudberg (U.S.)

1:30 - 1:45 Y. Saito, E.M. Crimmins, M.D. Hayward Approaches to Measuring Active Life Expectancy: Prevalence Versus Incidence, Population Versus Status-based Life Tables

1:45 - 2:00 K.A. Mulhorn, J. Horm, G.E. Hendershot Disability-Specific Death Rates: A New Tool for Estimating Health Expectancy

2:00 - 2:15 Y. Carriere and J. Legare The Need for Assistance in ADL and IADL: A Call for Redefining the Concept of Health for the Elderly Population

2:15 - 2:30 X. Liu Modeling Transitions in Health Status and Active Life Expectancy

2:30 - 2:45 Discussion

2:45 - 3:15 Coffee Break

SESSION IV Health Expectancy in Europe and North America - I

CHAIR: S. Jay Olshansky (U.S.)

3:15 - 3:30 R. Wilkins and J. Chen Measures of Health Expectancy Based on Physical Independence Handicap: Demographic, Regional and Social Dimensions for Canada in 1986 and 1991

3:30 - 3:45 J.M. Robine and P. Mormiche Examination of the Causes and Mechanisms of the Increase in Disability-Free Life Expectancy

3:45 - 4:00 R.J.M. Perenboom, H.C. Boshuizen, H.P.A. van de Water Dementia-Free Life Expectancy in the Netherlands, 1993

4:00 - 4:15 R. Roberge, S. Hood, J.M. Berthelot, F. Nault Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy in Canada

4:15 - 4:45 Discussion

6:30 - 8:30 Dinner at the Westin (REVES COMMITTEE MEETING)


7:30 - 8:30 Breakfast

SESSION V Education, Income, and Health

CHAIR: Rick Rogers (U.S.)

8:30 - 8:45 C. Mathers Differentials in Healthy Life Expectancy by Level of Socioeconomic Deprivation in Australia Withdrawn

8:45 - 9:00 E. Ng and J. Chen Estimating Health Expectancy by Education for Canada in the Late 1980s

9:15 - 9:30 H. Pettersson Trends in Health Expectancy for Socio-economic Groups in Sweden

9:30 - 9:45 A.P. Sihvonen, A.E. Kunst, E. Lahelma, J.P. Mackenbach, T. Valkonen Health Expectancy by Education in Finland and Norway

9:45 - 10:00 Discussion

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break

SESSION VI Health Expectancy in Europe and North America - II

CHAIR: Len Smith (Australia)

10:30 - 10:45 M.D. Hayward, E.M. Crimmins, Y. Saito Consequences of Chronic Health Problems for Active Life Expectancy Among American Elders

10:45 - 11:00 K.G. Manton and L.S. Corder Estimates of Change in Chronic Disability and Institutional Incidence and Prevalence Rates in the U.S. Elderly Population From the 1982, 1984, 1989 and 1994 National Long Term Care Survey

11:00 - 11:15 M.P. LaPlante and T.L. Armstrong Estimating Life Expectancy With and Without Disability in the U.S Withdrawn

Paper presentation by:

R. Ham-Chande Population and Health Policies Related to Aging in a Developing Society

11:15 - 11:30 V.L. Lamb and K. Faust Patterns of Health and Disablement Among the Elderly in The United States: A Correspondence Analysis of the AHEAD Data

11:30 - 11:45 J. Chen and R. Wilkins Unmet Needs for Personal Assistance in Canada

11:45 - 12:00 Discussion

12:00 - 1:30 Lunch


SESSION VII Methodology - II

CHAIR: Eileen Crimmins (U.S.)

1:30 - 1:45 G.C. Myers and K.G. Manton Sources of Bias in ALE Estimates from Survey Data

1:45 - 2:00 S. Laditka and D.A. Wolf Microsimulation of Active Life Expectancy: Methods and Policy Implications

2:00 - 2:15 J.A. Brody A New Statistic

2:15 - 2:30 D.J.H. Deeg, J.H. Smit, H. Boshuizen How Stable are Survey Measurements of ADL Disability and Functional Limitations?

2:30 - 2:45 Discussion

2:45 - 3:15 Coffee Break

SESSION VIII Disease-Specific Approach to Measuring Health Expectancy

CHAIR: Pieter G.N. Kramers (The Netherlands)

3:15 - 3:30 J. Barendregt, L. Bonneux, P.J. van der Maas Health Expectancy: From a Population Health Indicator to a Tool for Policy Making

3:30 - 3:45 L. Bonneux, Jan Barendregt, Paul van der Maas Exchanging Cardiovascular Disability for Cardiac Death. Understanding the Dynamics of Change.

3:45 - 4:00 J.M. Berthelot, R. Roberge, M.C. Wolfson, P. Tugwell Modeling the Population Health Impact of Osteo-Arthritis

4:00 - 4:15 E.H. Corder, H Basun, L. Corder, B. Winblad Apolipoprotein E Genotype-specific Trajectories of Risk for AD May Impact the Need for Nursing Home Care

4:15 - 4:30 Discussion

SESSION IX Round Table [Mental Health Calculations and Short Reports]

4:15 - 5:15 CHAIR: Karen Ritchie (France)

Session cancelled: Discussion focused on REVES and the internet.

6:30 - 7:00 Transportation to Field Museum

7:00 - 10:00 Dinner -- Field Museum (Includes Private Viewing)


7:30 - 8:30 Breakfast

SESSION X Health Expectancy in Developing Nations

CHAIR: Vicky Lamb (U.S.)

8:30 - 8:45 J.K. van Ginneken Use of Existing Cross-Sectional Surveys on Morbidity and Disability for Determining Different Types of Health Expectancy in Developing Countries Withdrawn

Paper presented by:

P.K.B. Nayar Healthy Life Expectancy of Inmates of Old Age Homes in Two Indian Cities - Madras and Kerala

8:45 - 9:00 M. Mutafova, H.P.A. van de Water, Ch. Maleshkov, H. Boshuizen, R. Perenboom Policy Implications of Health Expectancy Calculations in Bulgaria

9:00 - 9:15 D. Phillips Longer Life and Poorer Health in Trinidad and Tobago?

9:15 - 9:30 S.V. Panapasa and J.W. McNally From Cradle to Grave: Health Expectancy and Family Support Among the Elderly in the Fiji Islands

9:30 - 10:00 Discussion

10:00 - 10:45 Coffee Break

SESSION XI Limits to Lifespan and Life Expectancy?

CHAIR: Russell Wilkins (Canada)

10:45 - 11:00 S.J. Olshansky and B.A. Carnes Living on Manufactured Time: Health Implications of Exceeding the Biological Limit to Life

11:00 - 11:15 N. Briscoe, A. Plant, and L. Smith An Intrinsic Life Table Based on Australian Data

11:15 - 11:30 C.B. Nam, R.G. Rogers, S.H. Preston, R.A. Hummer The Impact of Smoking Trends on Future Life Expectancy and Population Age Structure in the U.S.

11:30 - 11:45 W.J. Nusselder and J.P. Mackenback Rectangularization of the Survival Curve and the Contribution of Selected Causes of Death

11:45 - 12:00 Discussion

12:00 - 1:00 Lunch


SESSION XII Paths Between Health and Disease

CHAIR: C. Jagger (U.K.)

1:15 - 1:30 M.A. Rudberg, M. Parzen, C. Cassel Disability Pathways and Transitions: Implication for Health Expectancy Measures

1:30 - 1:45 J.C. Riley and G. Alter How Long Does Wellness or Sickness Predict Future Health?

1:45 - 2:00 J.P. Michel, M. Castanier, J. Arroyo, N. De Tonnac, A. Rossier Ageing Process of Spinal Cord-Injured Individuals: A 15-Year Retrospective Study of 400 Cases Withdrawn

2:00 - 2:15 Discussion

2:15 - 2:45 Concluding Remarks

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